Texas Christian

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	238.0
Current RPI:	238
Expected SOS:	124
Current SOS:	124
Current Record:	10-21
Expected Record:	10-21
Current Conf Record:	2-17
Expected Conf Record:	2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-3
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	228
Expected OOC SOS:	327

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-21	238.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Christian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	53-46	W	100%
11-15	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	H	61-64	L	0%
11-18	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	44-39	W	100%
11-20	Navy (308.0)	Pat	H	47-45	W	100%
11-23	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	N	31-55	L	0%
11-24	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	N	76-73	W	100%
11-29	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	61-52	W	100%
12-4	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	H	48-54	L	0%
12-8	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	A	50-49	L	0%
12-18	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	68-57	W	100%
12-22	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	A	63-65	W	100%
12-30	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	H	67-64	W	100%
1-5	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	H	53-62	L	0%
1-9	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	63-45	L	0%
1-12	Baylor (71.0)	B12	A	51-40	L	0%
1-16	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	H	54-67	L	0%
1-19	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	H	50-63	L	0%
1-23	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	A	71-50	L	0%
1-26	Baylor (71.0)	B12	H	56-82	L	0%
2-2	Texas (116.0)	B12	A	60-43	L	0%
2-6	Kansas (5.0)	B12	H	62-55	W	100%
2-9	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	H	50-63	L	0%
2-11	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	A	75-48	L	0%
2-16	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	87-53	L	0%
2-19	Texas (116.0)	B12	H	59-68	L	0%
2-23	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	74-48	L	0%
2-27	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	H	47-64	L	0%
3-2	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	72-63	L	0%
3-5	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	79-68	L	0%
3-9	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	H	70-67	W	100%
3-13	Texas (116.0)	B12	N	70-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Christian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Christian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Christian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Christian	B12	26.35	26.35	25.90	25.90	-12.70	-12.70
Texas	B12	5.72	5.72	44.83	44.83	-0.59	-0.59
Kansas St.	B12	4.26	4.26	77.42	77.42	2.33	2.33
Kansas	B12	4.24	4.24	87.50	87.50	3.18	3.18
Iowa St.	B12	4.21	4.21	64.52	64.52	1.22	1.22
Texas Tech	B12	4.20	4.20	31.03	31.03	-1.59	-1.59
West Virginia	B12	4.18	4.18	36.67	36.67	-1.12	-1.12
Oklahoma St.	B12	4.18	4.18	73.33	73.33	1.95	1.95
Oklahoma	B12	4.18	4.18	65.52	65.52	1.30	1.30
Baylor	B12	4.15	4.15	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.91	1.91	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Rice	CUSA	1.90	1.90	14.29	14.29	-1.36	-1.36
Houston	CUSA	1.88	1.88	58.62	58.62	0.32	0.32
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.82	1.82	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Tulsa	CUSA	1.80	1.80	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	1.80	1.80	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Southern	SWAC	1.80	1.80	71.43	71.43	0.77	0.77
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.75	1.75	18.52	18.52	-1.10	-1.10
Northwestern	B10	1.69	1.69	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Navy	Pat	1.66	1.66	24.14	24.14	-0.86	-0.86
Cal Poly	BW	1.61	1.61	57.14	57.14	0.23	0.23
Southern Utah	BSky	1.61	1.61	32.14	32.14	-0.58	-0.58
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.32	0.32	37.93	37.93	-0.08	-0.08
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.32	0.32	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.29	0.29	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.28	0.28	93.75	93.75	0.25	0.25
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.27	0.27	54.84	54.84	0.03	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.24	0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.24	-0.24
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.24	0.24	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.22	0.22	28.12	28.12	-0.10	-0.10
Marshall	CUSA	0.21	0.21	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.18	0.18	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.18	0.18	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.18	0.18	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.16	0.16	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Michigan St.	B10	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.13	0.13	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Texas St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.11	14.81	14.81	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.06	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01